Predicting Future Distribution of Mountain Apricot in China
Author Information
Author(s): Wang Jiazhi, Cheng Jiming, Zhang Chao, Feng Yingqun, Jin Lang, Wei Shuhua, Yang Hui, Cao Ziyu, Peng Jiuhui, Luo Yonghong
Primary Institution: China Meteorological Administration
Hypothesis
A small set of key climatic factors can effectively predict the current and future potential distribution of Prunus sibirica using the MaxEnt model.
Conclusion
Climate change will significantly impact the distribution of wild apricots, particularly under high-emission scenarios, where their suitable habitats are expected to shift considerably.
Supporting Evidence
- Climate change will significantly impact the distribution of wild apricots.
- The model optimized with six key climate factors outperformed the full model.
- Highly suitable habitats for wild apricots are expected to shift geographically.
- Under high-emission scenarios, suitable habitats may completely disappear in some regions.
- Seasonal changes in precipitation are the most influential factor for distribution.
Takeaway
This study predicts where mountain apricots will grow in the future based on climate changes, showing that they might move to new areas as the climate changes.
Methodology
The study used the MaxEnt model to analyze 132 distribution points of Prunus sibirica and six key environmental variables to predict future distribution under different climate scenarios.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from the selection of environmental variables and the geographic distribution of data points.
Limitations
The study may not account for all environmental factors affecting distribution and relies on the accuracy of climate models.
Statistical Information
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website