Multistate Characteristics Among Older Population in China (2024–2050)
Author Information
Author(s): Li Yichao, Mi Hong
Primary Institution: Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
Hypothesis
The study aims to simulate the complex long-term care demand in China by estimating life expectancy with disability under different demographic scenarios.
Conclusion
The study found that older people with moderate and severe disability in China will increase from 2023 to 2050, while public long-term care expenditures will remain low compared to developed countries.
Supporting Evidence
- China's older population is experiencing an increase in moderate and severe disabilities from 2023 to 2050.
- Public long-term care expenditures in China will be less than 0.7% of GDP in 2050.
Takeaway
This study looks at how many older people in China will need help as they age and shows that the country will spend less on care compared to richer countries.
Methodology
The study used a three-parameter lifetable model, Lee-Carter Coherent model, and Bayesian multistate model to simulate disability prevalence among older people.
Limitations
The study may overlook biases in multistate characteristics of aging due to a lack of systematic methodology.
Participant Demographics
Older population in China, with data sourced from CHARLS and other surveys.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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