Non-detection of emerging and re-emerging pathogens in wastewater surveillance to confirm absence of transmission risk: A case study of polio in New York
2024

Confirming absence of infectious disease transmission risk using wastewater surveillance

Sample size: 51 publication 10 minutes Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Larsen David A., Hill Dustin, Zhu Yifan, Alazawi Mohammed, Chatila Dana, Dunham Christopher, Faruolo Catherine, Ferro Brandon, Godinez Alejandro, Hanson Brianna, Insaf Tabassum, Lang Dan, Neigel Dana, Neyra Milagros, Pulido Nicole, Wilder Max, Yang Nan, Kmush Brittany, Green Hyatt

Primary Institution: Department of Public Health, Syracuse University

Hypothesis

Can wastewater surveillance effectively confirm the absence of poliovirus transmission risk?

Conclusion

Wastewater surveillance can confirm the absence of a polio threat and can be escalated if poliovirus is detected.

Supporting Evidence

  • Wastewater testing for poliovirus began in New York State in July of 2022.
  • Polio was detected in 12 (23.5)% of the 51 wastewater treatment plants in downstate New York.
  • Estimated sensitivity to detect a single poliovirus infection was low, <11% at most wastewater treatment plants.
  • Three consecutive non-detections of poliovirus provide confidence in zero poliovirus infections.

Takeaway

Scientists tested wastewater to see if polio was spreading, and they found that it can help show if there is no risk of polio in the community.

Methodology

The study used wastewater sampling and testing to estimate the sensitivity of detecting poliovirus in wastewater.

Potential Biases

Potential biases include assumptions about equal mixing of vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.

Limitations

The sensitivity of detection is low and varies by population size and other factors.

Participant Demographics

The study focused on wastewater from communities in New York State, particularly those with varying vaccination rates.

Statistical Information

P-Value

<0.01

Confidence Interval

95% CI = 1,359–1,439

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pgph.0002381

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