Estimating Duration of Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Stages
Author Information
Author(s): Francesco Checchi, João Filipe, Daniel T Haydon, Daniel Chandramohan, François Chappuis
Primary Institution: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Hypothesis
What is the duration of untreated stage 1 and stage 2 of gambiense sleeping sickness?
Conclusion
The estimated duration of untreated gambiense sleeping sickness is nearly three years, split between stage 1 and stage 2.
Supporting Evidence
- The mean duration of stage 1 is estimated to be 526 days.
- The mean duration of stage 2 is estimated to be 500 days.
- The total duration of untreated gambiense sleeping sickness is nearly three years.
Takeaway
Doctors wanted to find out how long people can be sick with sleeping sickness without treatment, and they found it can last almost three years.
Methodology
Survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions.
Potential Biases
Bias may arise from the mixture of true and false cases among serological suspects.
Limitations
Potential biases include systematic delays in stage 2 ascertainment and assumptions about the stability of incidence rates.
Participant Demographics
Participants were primarily from Uganda and Sudan, with a median age of 20-25 years and a balanced gender distribution.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.0019
Confidence Interval
95%CI 357 to 833 for stage 1; 95%CI 345 to 769 for stage 2
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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