Measles Transmission Risk in England
Author Information
Author(s): Choi Yoon Hong, Gay Nigel, Fraser Graham, Ramsay Mary
Primary Institution: Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency
Hypothesis
What is the potential for measles transmission in England given the current vaccination coverage?
Conclusion
Several districts in England, particularly in London, have a high risk of sustained measles transmission due to low vaccination coverage.
Supporting Evidence
- 1.9 million school children and 300,000 pre-school children were recorded as incompletely vaccinated against measles.
- Approximately 1.3 million children aged 2–17 years were susceptible to measles.
- 14 out of 99 districts had susceptibility levels high enough for R to exceed 1, indicating potential for sustained transmission.
Takeaway
Many kids in England aren't vaccinated against measles, which means the disease could come back and spread easily.
Methodology
Quarterly MMR coverage data for children aged two and five years were analyzed to estimate susceptibility to measles and calculate effective reproduction numbers.
Potential Biases
Data quality issues may lead to underestimation of vaccination coverage, particularly in high-mobility populations.
Limitations
The study relies on potentially inaccurate vaccination coverage data, especially in London, which may underestimate the true vaccination rates.
Participant Demographics
Children aged 2–17 years in England.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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