Model for Estimating Sample Size in Cattle Disease Surveys
Author Information
Author(s): Lea Knopf, Heinzpeter Schwermer, Katharina D. C. Stärk
Primary Institution: Swiss Federal Veterinary Office
Hypothesis
Can a stochastic model improve the estimation of sample sizes for national surveys to document freedom from bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection?
Conclusion
The model accurately estimated the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection and serves as a flexible tool for adapting to changing conditions in livestock health.
Supporting Evidence
- The model highlighted the importance of undetected domestic infection spread.
- Sensitivity analysis showed strong correlation between pre-survey prevalence and domestic herd infection rates.
- The model can be adapted for various infectious agents beyond BoHV-1.
Takeaway
This study created a computer model to help figure out how many cattle need to be tested to make sure they are healthy and free from a specific virus.
Methodology
The model used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection based on various infection pathways and parameters.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from assumptions about detection probabilities and the representativeness of previous survey results.
Limitations
The model did not account for clustered outbreaks or detailed data on transport conditions for imported animals.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on cattle herds in Switzerland, with a population size of approximately 50,000 herds.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.011
Confidence Interval
95% CI 96.63–97.31%
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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