Estimating Key Transmission Parameters of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Author Information
Author(s): Sertsou Gabriel, Wilson Nick, Baker Michael, Nelson Peter, Roberts Mick G
Primary Institution: University of Otago, Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences
Hypothesis
To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918).
Conclusion
The R0 estimates suggest that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged, it could potentially be controlled through prompt public health measures.
Supporting Evidence
- The basic reproduction number (R0) values ranged between 1.3 and 3.1.
- The average latent period was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.3 days.
- The average infectious period was estimated to be between 0.2 and 0.3 days.
- The mean incidence-mortality lag period was approximately 6.9 days.
Takeaway
This study looked at how the flu spread in a military camp during the 1918 pandemic and found that it could be controlled if a similar flu came back.
Methodology
A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically using historical morbidity and mortality data.
Potential Biases
The estimates may overestimate R0 due to unique aspects of the military camp, such as crowded conditions and a young population with low immunity.
Limitations
The study is limited by the use of historical data from over eight decades ago, which may not accurately reflect the population and conditions at the time.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on approximately 8000 military personnel, predominantly young males.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
0.60 to 0.74 for latent period, 0.21 to 0.28 for infectious period.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website