Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations
2008
Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease
publication
Evidence: moderate
Author Information
Author(s): Joshua M. Epstein, Jon Parker, Derek Cummings, Ross A. Hammond
Primary Institution: The Brookings Institution
Hypothesis
How does the inclusion of adaptive behavior, such as fear-induced flight, affect epidemic dynamics?
Conclusion
Including fear-inspired flight in epidemic models can significantly alter the dynamics of disease spread.
Supporting Evidence
- Fear can spread independently of disease prevalence.
- Even a small amount of flight can dramatically increase the speed and size of an epidemic.
- Historical cases show that fear alone can lead to mass flight from disease outbreaks.
Takeaway
When people are scared of getting sick, they might run away or hide, which can change how fast a disease spreads.
Methodology
The study used nonlinear dynamical systems and agent-based computation to model disease and fear contagion.
Limitations
The model may not capture all possible behavioral responses to fear and disease.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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