Projecting Temperature-Related Dengue Burden in the Philippines
Author Information
Author(s): Seposo Xerxes, Valenzuela Sary, Apostol Geminn Louis C., Wangkay Keith Alexius, Lao Percival Ethan, Enriquez Anna Beatrice
Primary Institution: Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health
Hypothesis
This study aims to investigate the historical and projected excess dengue disease burden attributable to temperature to help inform climate change policies.
Conclusion
The study found that 72.1% of reported dengue cases in the Philippines from 2010 to 2019 were attributable to temperature, indicating a significant relationship between rising temperatures and dengue incidence.
Supporting Evidence
- Projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature-related dengue incidence across all SSP climate scenarios by 2100.
- Between 2010-2019, 72.1% of reported dengue cases in the Philippines were attributable to temperature.
- The highest temperature-related dengue incidence was observed in southern, peri-equatorial areas undergoing rapid urbanization.
- Strengthening health infrastructure and vector control measures is crucial to mitigate future dengue burden.
Takeaway
As temperatures rise, more people in the Philippines are likely to get dengue fever, especially during the warm months.
Methodology
The study used established temperature-dengue risk functions and future projections based on CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios to estimate the dengue burden.
Potential Biases
Potential underreporting of dengue cases and exclusion of certain provinces may introduce bias.
Limitations
The study only included reported dengue cases from health centers, potentially underestimating the true burden, and excluded provinces with less than 300,000 population due to lack of statistical power.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on dengue cases reported across 81 provinces in the Philippines.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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