Malaria and El Niño in Sri Lanka
Author Information
Author(s): Zubair Lareef, Galappaththy Gawrie N, Yang Hyemin, Chandimala Janaki, Yahiya Zeenas, Amerasinghe Priyanie, Ward Neil, Connor Stephen J
Primary Institution: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University
Hypothesis
Is there a relationship between El Niño events and malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka?
Conclusion
The association between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka changed significantly after 1928, with a stronger link to La Niña events until 1980.
Supporting Evidence
- Nine out of sixteen malaria epidemics from 1870 to 1945 coincided with El Niño years.
- The relationship between El Niño and malaria epidemics was statistically significant from 1870 to 1927.
- From 1928 to 1980, epidemics were more likely to occur during La Niña phases.
Takeaway
This study looked at how El Niño affects malaria outbreaks in Sri Lanka. It found that while El Niño was linked to more outbreaks before 1928, after that, outbreaks were more common during La Niña years.
Methodology
The study analyzed climatic and epidemiological data from 1870 to 2000, identifying epidemic years and correlating them with El Niño phases.
Limitations
The record after 1980 is too short to establish a reliable relationship between El Niño and malaria epidemics.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p < 0.001
Statistical Significance
p < 0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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