Vegetation Changes and Carbon Balance Due to Climate Change
Author Information
Author(s): Wolfgang Lucht, Sibyll Schaphoff, Tim Erbrecht, Ursula Heyder, Wolfgang Cramer
Primary Institution: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hypothesis
How will vegetation change and where will it change most dramatically under climate change?
Conclusion
Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100.
Supporting Evidence
- The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, containing about 125 billion tons of additional carbon.
- The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century.
- Simulations show a decline in the land biosphere's carbon sink beginning around the middle of the 21st century.
Takeaway
As the climate changes, plants will move around and change types, which will affect how much carbon they can store.
Methodology
The study used Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) to simulate vegetation changes under two climate scenarios.
Limitations
The study does not compute feedbacks between climate and vegetation, which may affect results.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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