Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century‐Scale Warming in an End‐To‐End California Current Ecosystem Model
2025

Climate Change Effects on California Current Ecosystem

publication 10 minutes Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Owen R. Liu, Isaac C. Kaplan, Pierre‐Yves Hernvann, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Melissa A. Haltuch, Chris J. Harvey, Kristin N. Marshall, Barbara Muhling, Karma Norman, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Alberto Rovellini, Jameal F. Samhouri

Primary Institution: Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Hypothesis

How do climate-driven species redistribution and ocean warming affect key commercial species in the California Current Ecosystem?

Conclusion

The study finds that both ocean warming and changes in species distributions will significantly impact the future dynamics of the California Current ecosystem and its fisheries.

Supporting Evidence

  • Climate change impacts marine ecosystems through biological and ecological processes.
  • Ecosystem models like Atlantis can simulate complex climate change effects.
  • Species distribution shifts are more influential than warming on biomass and abundance patterns.
  • Fishing dynamics may not align with changes in species abundance due to distribution shifts.

Takeaway

Climate change is making fish move around and changing how many there are, which can affect fishing in California.

Methodology

The study used an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model to simulate the effects of climate change on species distribution and biomass from 2013 to 2100.

Limitations

The model projections are based on a fixed emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and may not account for all complex interactions in the ecosystem.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1111/gcb.70021

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