Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Six-Month Survival of Medicare Beneficiaries in Assisted Living
2024

Predicting Six-Month Survival for Medicare Beneficiaries in Assisted Living

Sample size: 31274 publication Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Huang Andrew, Dionne Laura, Reddy Ann, Serina Peter, McCreedy Ellen

Primary Institution: Brown University

Hypothesis

Can a prediction model accurately estimate the six-month survival of Medicare beneficiaries in assisted living?

Conclusion

The developed model can help identify Medicare beneficiaries in assisted living who may benefit from targeted end-of-life care.

Supporting Evidence

  • The model was developed using data from 31,274 residents across 1,228 assisted living centers.
  • Dementia was prevalent among 11.5% of the residents studied.
  • 6.3% of the residents died within six months of the study.

Takeaway

This study created a tool to help figure out which older people in assisted living might need special care as they approach the end of their lives.

Methodology

Data from electronic health records and Medicare claims were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting all-cause mortality.

Limitations

The model may not be applicable to all assisted living centers or populations outside of the study sample.

Participant Demographics

Mean age was 85.3 years, 69.0% female, and 87.2% non-Hispanic White.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1093/geroni/igae098.0515

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