When Did HIV Incidence Peak in Harare, Zimbabwe?
Author Information
Author(s): Ben Lopman, Simon Gregson
Primary Institution: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London
Hypothesis
When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe?
Conclusion
HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990.
Supporting Evidence
- HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe.
- Empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe.
- Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function produced well-fitting patterns of incidence.
Takeaway
Researchers used death data to figure out when HIV infections were at their highest in Harare, Zimbabwe, and found it was likely between 1988 and 1990.
Methodology
The study used a back-calculation technique from AIDS mortality data to reconstruct historic trends in HIV incidence.
Potential Biases
There may be biases due to under-registration of AIDS deaths and the assumption that all AIDS deaths occurred in adults.
Limitations
The use of crude mortality statistics presents difficulties, including potential underestimation of mortality due to migration and reporting delays.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on the adult population aged 15 to 59 in Harare.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website