Geographic Distribution and Ecological Niche of Plague in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author Information
Author(s): Neerinckx Simon B, Peterson Andrew T, Gulinck Hubert, Deckers Jozef, Leirs Herwig
Hypothesis
Can ecological niche modeling predict the geographic distribution of plague in sub-Saharan Africa?
Conclusion
Plague in Africa persists in ecologically diverse biotopes, indicating that its typical focality is not related to fragmented environmental conditions at a coarse scale.
Supporting Evidence
- The study predicts a broad potential distribution of plague occurrences across sub-Saharan Africa.
- Model transferability tests indicate that the model can predict plague occurrences in Madagascar and northern Africa.
- Environmental factors such as elevation and rainfall significantly influence the model's predictions.
Takeaway
This study looks at where plague might occur in Africa and finds that it can live in many different environments, not just in isolated areas.
Methodology
The study used ecological niche modeling with human plague occurrence data from 1970 to 2007 to predict the geographic distribution of plague.
Potential Biases
The study may underestimate plague's geographic distribution due to reliance on human case data and potential inaccuracies in geographic coordinates.
Limitations
The models are based on historical human plague data, which may not accurately reflect the disease's presence in natural environments.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website