Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions
Author Information
Author(s): Joshua M. Epstein, D. Michael Goedecke, Feng Yu, Robert J. Morris, Diane K. Wagener, Georgiy V. Bobashev
Primary Institution: The Brookings Institution
Hypothesis
Can international air travel restrictions effectively delay the spread of a pandemic flu?
Conclusion
International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time.
Supporting Evidence
- Travel restrictions can delay the introduction of a pandemic virus to the U.S. by 2 to 3 weeks.
- High levels of international travel restrictions are necessary to significantly reduce the total number of infected individuals worldwide.
- Travel restrictions alone may lead to a higher number of total cases in a region due to seasonal effects.
- Combining travel restrictions with vaccination can further reduce the total number of epidemic cases.
- The cost of air travel restrictions is estimated to be less than 1% of the U.S. GNP.
Takeaway
If there's a flu pandemic, stopping flights can help slow it down a bit, but it's better if we also do other things to stop the spread.
Methodology
A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model was used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination.
Limitations
The model focuses on major metropolitan areas and does not account for heterogeneous populations or ground transportation.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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