Divergent Trajectories of Arctic Change
Author Information
Author(s): Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Mia M. Bennett, Lawson W. Brigham, Scott R. Stephenson, Margaret Wilcox, Stephanie Pezard
Primary Institution: U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Hypothesis
How will socio-economic patterns in the Arctic evolve by 2050 in response to climate change and other factors?
Conclusion
The study finds that the Arctic is becoming increasingly heterogeneous, with different sub-regions expected to experience varying socio-economic outcomes by 2050.
Supporting Evidence
- The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979.
- Different sub-regions of the Arctic are trending in different socio-economic directions.
- The study highlights the concept of 'many Arctics' to describe the region's diversity.
- Expert consensus was built through a Delphi exercise involving 78 participants.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, impact Arctic cooperation.
- Indigenous self-determination is a key factor influencing future trajectories in the Arctic.
- Climate change is driving significant changes in the Arctic's socio-economic landscape.
- Variability in geography, geology, and weather patterns affects how climate change impacts the Arctic.
Takeaway
The Arctic is changing in many different ways, and different areas will face different challenges and opportunities in the future.
Methodology
The study used a mixed methods approach, including a literature review and a Delphi expert elicitation exercise to forecast socio-economic trajectories.
Potential Biases
The results may reflect strong influences from certain knowledgeable participants and may not fully capture regional perspectives.
Limitations
The research faced challenges in expert participation, particularly from Russia, and was limited to ten outcomes in the Delphi exercise.
Participant Demographics
Participants included experts from academia, industry, government, and Indigenous organizations, with a focus on Arctic issues.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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