Understanding Plague Dynamics in Rodent Populations
Author Information
Author(s): Buhnerkempe Michael G., Eisen Rebecca J., Goodell Brandon, Gage Kenneth L., Antolin Michael F., Webb Colleen T.
Primary Institution: Colorado State University
Hypothesis
The relative importance of alternative transmission routes may vary, causing shifts from epizootic to enzootic dynamics in plague responses.
Conclusion
The study suggests that enzootic persistence relies on infection of an off-host flea reservoir, while epizootics depend on transient flea infection loads through repeated infectious feeds.
Supporting Evidence
- The model showed clear enzootic and epizootic behavior for the parameterizations based on black-tailed prairie dogs and California ground squirrels.
- Parameter values for California ground squirrels created enzootic behavior for prolonged periods with 90% of surviving hosts found to be resistant to plague.
- The model predicted high extinction probabilities for prairie dogs similar to observed epizootics.
Takeaway
This study looks at how different ways that fleas spread plague can change how rodent populations react to the disease, helping us understand why some populations survive while others don't.
Methodology
A model incorporating host and flea ecology with multiple transmission hypotheses was developed to study plague dynamics.
Limitations
The model's predictions are based on parameter estimates that may not fully capture the complexity of natural systems.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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