Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change
Author Information
Author(s): Cloern James E., Knowles Noah, Brown Larry R., Cayan Daniel, Dettinger Michael D., Morgan Tara L., Schoellhamer David H., Stacey Mark T., van der Wegen Mick, Wagner R. Wayne, Jassby Alan D.
Primary Institution: U.S. Geological Survey
Hypothesis
How will climate change affect the San Francisco Estuary-Watershed system over the 21st century?
Conclusion
Environmental indicators in California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed will change significantly due to climate change, posing challenges for water supply and ecosystem sustainability.
Supporting Evidence
- Climate change is causing significant warming and changes in precipitation patterns.
- Projected sea level rise will increase flooding risks in coastal areas.
- Changes in water temperature and salinity will affect native fish populations.
- Adaptation strategies will be necessary to manage water resources effectively.
Takeaway
The study looks at how climate change will change the San Francisco Bay and its rivers over the next 100 years, affecting water supply and local wildlife.
Methodology
The study used linked models to project climate change impacts on environmental indicators from 2010 to 2099 based on two climate scenarios.
Potential Biases
The projections are sensitive to the choice of climate models and emissions scenarios, which introduces uncertainty.
Limitations
The study does not account for potential changes in water resource management or land use that may occur in the future.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.00001
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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