Amazon Forests and Climate Change: Risks and Solutions
Author Information
Author(s): Daniel C. Nepstad, Claudia M. Stickler, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Frank Merry
Primary Institution: Woods Hole Research Center
Hypothesis
Could accelerating, forest-substituting and forest-damaging economic activities interact with regional climate change to replace or degrade a large portion of the Amazon forest over the next two decades?
Conclusion
The study suggests that synergistic trends in Amazon economies, forests, and climate could lead to the replacement or severe degradation of more than half of the closed-canopy forests of the Amazon Basin by the year 2030.
Supporting Evidence
- Approximately 55% of the forests of the Amazon will be cleared, logged, damaged by drought, or burned over the next 20 years.
- Rising global demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions.
- Protected areas have been established in the pathway of expanding agricultural frontiers.
Takeaway
If we keep cutting down the Amazon forests and changing the climate, we might lose a lot of trees and animals very soon. But there are ways to help protect the forest.
Methodology
The study reviews current trends in Amazon economic, ecological, and climatic processes, and presents new maps of the Amazon.
Limitations
The study does not invoke fire in its estimates, although it is probable that a substantial portion of the forests that are damaged will experience understorey fire.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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