Modeling Disease Spread Through Air Travel
Author Information
Author(s): Justin Lessler, James H. Kaufman, Daniel A. Ford, Judith V. Douglas
Primary Institution: Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
Hypothesis
Can a simplified air transport model accurately predict the spread of infectious diseases compared to a detailed model?
Conclusion
The simplified pipe model may be adequate for large-scale disease spread, but a more complex model is necessary for specific interventions and accurate predictions.
Supporting Evidence
- The pipe model tends to overestimate trips between small airports.
- The gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model.
- 10% of routes may have significant differences in disease introduction rates.
Takeaway
This study looks at how air travel helps spread diseases and finds that a simpler model can work for big picture predictions, but not for detailed ones.
Methodology
The study compared a simplified 'pipe' model of air travel to a fully saturated model using U.S. ticket data from 2007.
Limitations
The pipe model overestimates small airport trips and underestimates major routes, which can lead to inaccuracies in disease spread predictions.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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