Monitoring Tax Avoidance and Smoking Cessation after Cigarette Tax Increase
Author Information
Author(s): John W. Ayers, Kurt Ribisl, John S. Brownstein
Primary Institution: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Hypothesis
How do tax increases affect smoking cessation and tax avoidance behaviors as reflected in online search queries?
Conclusion
The SCHIP tax led to an immediate increase in cessation searches but a more pronounced and lasting increase in tax avoidance searches.
Supporting Evidence
- The SCHIP tax was associated with an 11.8% increase in cessation searches.
- Tax avoidance searches increased by 27.9% during the tax implementation period.
- Searches for cessation quickly returned to pre-tax levels, while tax avoidance searches remained elevated.
Takeaway
When the government raised cigarette taxes, more people searched online for ways to quit smoking, but even more looked for cheaper cigarettes to avoid the tax.
Methodology
Analyzed Google search queries related to smoking cessation and tax avoidance before and after the SCHIP tax increase, comparing results from taxed and untaxed regions.
Potential Biases
Search queries may not represent all smokers, as online smokers tend to be younger and more educated.
Limitations
The study relies on ecological inferences and may not capture individual smoking behaviors or tax-motivated outcomes like reduced consumption.
Participant Demographics
Smokers who used the Internet were generally younger, more educated, and had higher incomes than those who did not.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95%CI, 5.7 to 17.9
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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