Prevalence Estimation Methods for Time-Dependent Antibody Kinetics of Infected and Vaccinated Individuals: A Markov Chain Approach
2025

Estimating Antibody Levels in Infected and Vaccinated Individuals

Sample size: 1000 publication 10 minutes Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Prajakta Bedekar, Rayanne A. Luke, Anthony J. Kearsley

Primary Institution: Johns Hopkins University

Hypothesis

Can a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain model effectively estimate the prevalence of antibody responses in individuals who are either infected or vaccinated?

Conclusion

The study presents a new Markov chain model that accurately estimates the prevalence of antibody responses in populations affected by infections and vaccinations.

Supporting Evidence

  • The model effectively estimates antibody levels using synthetic data.
  • Results show that the new approach can handle complex interactions between infections and vaccinations.
  • Prevalence estimates align closely with true values in various scenarios.

Takeaway

This study created a new way to understand how many people have antibodies after being infected or vaccinated, which helps us know how well the population is protected.

Methodology

The authors developed a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain model to estimate prevalence using synthetic data based on antibody measurements.

Potential Biases

Potential biases may arise from overlapping antibody responses in infected and vaccinated individuals.

Limitations

The model assumes no reinfection or revaccination, which may not reflect real-world scenarios.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1007/s11538-024-01402-0

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