Impact of Risk Factors on Heart Disease Deaths in Beijing
Author Information
Author(s): Cheng Jun, Zhao Dong, Zeng Zhechun, Critchley Julia Alison, Liu Jing, Wang Wei, Sun Jiayi, Capewell Simon
Primary Institution: Beijing Institute of Heart, Lung & Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital affiliated to the Capital Medical University, Beijing, PR China
Hypothesis
The study aimed to assess the impact of demographic changes and risk factor trends on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing from 1999 to 2010.
Conclusion
CHD death rates are continuing to rise in Beijing due to worsening risk factor levels and demographic trends, but improvements in diet and smoking could offset this increase.
Supporting Evidence
- Population ageing alone would result in approximately 1990 additional deaths in 2010 compared with 1999.
- Continuation of current risk factor trends would result in approximately 3,015 extra deaths in 2010.
- Assumed 0.5% annual reductions in risk factors would result in some 3,730 fewer deaths, representing a 23% decrease overall.
Takeaway
More people in Beijing are dying from heart disease because of unhealthy habits and an aging population, but if people eat better and smoke less, it could help save lives.
Methodology
The IMPACT model was used to estimate CHD deaths under three scenarios based on population aging and risk factor trends.
Potential Biases
Potential overestimation or underestimation of benefits due to uncertainties in model parameters.
Limitations
The model only considers mortality and not years of life lost or morbidity, and it assumes constant treatment levels from 1999.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on the Beijing population aged 35–74 years.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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