Global Patterns of City Size Distributions and Their Fundamental Drivers
Author Information
Author(s): Ethan H. Decker, Andrew J. Kerkhoff, Melanie E. Moses
Primary Institution: University of New Mexico
Hypothesis
City size distributions are lognormally distributed rather than following a power function.
Conclusion
Most human settlements are distributed lognormally, with the largest cities approaching a power law.
Supporting Evidence
- City size distributions are better fit by a lognormal distribution than by a power law.
- The largest cities deviate from the lognormal and approach a power law.
- Empirical data shows systematic deviations from predicted values indicating city size patterns are not entirely described by power laws.
- Nighttime light data correlates well with population estimates.
- Lognormal distributions are indicative of probabilistic, multiplicative processes.
Takeaway
Cities come in all sizes, and when we look at them all together, they form a pattern that looks like a bell curve, but the biggest cities behave differently.
Methodology
The study analyzed city size distributions using census data and nighttime light data, applying statistical models to assess the fit of lognormal and power law distributions.
Potential Biases
Potential bias from excluding smaller cities and relying on varying census methods across regions.
Limitations
The study may not account for spatial heterogeneity and other factors affecting city size distributions.
Participant Demographics
The study includes data from urban areas worldwide, but specific demographic details are not provided.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.0001
Statistical Significance
p<0.0001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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