Modelling in the light of uncertainty of key parameters: a call to exercise caution in field predictions of Bt-maize effects
2011

Concerns About Bt Maize Effects on Non-Target Lepidoptera

publication Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Lang A., Brunzel S., Dolek M., Otto M., Theißen B.

Hypothesis

What are the potential adverse effects of Bt maize pollen on non-target Lepidoptera species?

Conclusion

The study highlights significant uncertainties in the modeling of Bt maize effects on non-target Lepidoptera, suggesting that the actual impacts may be worse than predicted.

Supporting Evidence

  • The model by Perry et al. is based on uncertain data regarding the toxicity of Bt maize pollen.
  • Assumptions made in the model may not hold true, leading to potential underestimations of the effects.
  • Variability in Cry1Ab concentration in pollen complicates predictions of its effects on non-target species.

Takeaway

Scientists are worried that genetically modified maize might harm butterflies and moths more than we think, because the data used to predict the effects is not very reliable.

Methodology

The authors critique a model developed by Perry et al. that predicts the effects of Bt maize pollen on non-target Lepidoptera, focusing on uncertainties in input data and assumptions.

Potential Biases

The use of data from different transgenic events may introduce bias, as the effects of Cry1Ab may not be consistent across different species.

Limitations

The study points out that the model relies on limited and uncertain data, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1098/rspb.2010.2085

Want to read the original?

Access the complete publication on the publisher's website

View Original Publication