The European Mesothelioma Epidemic
Author Information
Author(s): Peto J, Decarli A, Vecchia C La, Levi F, Negri E
Primary Institution: Section of Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research
Hypothesis
Projections suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe will increase significantly over the next two decades.
Conclusion
The number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe is expected to almost double by 2018, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years.
Supporting Evidence
- Projections indicate an increase in mesothelioma deaths from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 by 2018.
- A total of about a quarter of a million deaths from mesothelioma is expected over the next 35 years.
- The model was validated by comparing observed and predicted death numbers for the period 1990-94.
Takeaway
More men in Western Europe are expected to die from a lung cancer called mesothelioma in the coming years, especially those born around 1945-50.
Methodology
The projections were based on a model fitting male pleural cancer mortality data from 1970 to 1989 across six Western European countries.
Limitations
The model assumes a constant ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality across different countries.
Participant Demographics
The highest risk is among men born around 1945-50.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website