Evolution of pathogens towards low R0 in heterogeneous populations
2006
Evolution of Pathogens Towards Lower R0 in Heterogeneous Populations
publication
Evidence: moderate
Author Information
Author(s): Kao Rowland R.
Primary Institution: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
Hypothesis
Can pathogens evolve towards lower R0 in heterogeneous populations?
Conclusion
The study shows that pathogens may evolve towards lower R0, potentially leading to extinction, despite starting conditions that suggest successful invasion.
Supporting Evidence
- Pathogens that exploit population heterogeneities can have an advantage.
- Exploiting heterogeneities can lead to a rapid depletion of susceptible individuals.
- Two stable strategies exist for pathogens: one that exploits heterogeneities and one that does not.
Takeaway
This study suggests that some germs can change to become less contagious in certain groups of people, even if that means they might disappear altogether.
Methodology
A simple model of pathogen evolution in a heterogeneous environment was developed, focusing on HIV transmission dynamics.
Limitations
The model does not account for all real-world complexities of pathogen evolution and transmission.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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