Modeling Drug Resistant Influenza in a Pandemic
Author Information
Author(s): Brockmann Stefan O, Schwehm Markus, Duerr Hans-Peter, Witschi Mark, Koch Daniel, Vidondo Beatriz, Eichner Martin
Primary Institution: Department of Epidemiology and Health Reporting, Baden-Württemberg State Health Office, District Government Stuttgart, Germany
Hypothesis
How do neuraminidase inhibitor resistant influenza strains affect the dynamics of an influenza pandemic?
Conclusion
The emergence of drug-resistant influenza strains significantly increases the number of outpatients and hospitalizations during a pandemic.
Supporting Evidence
- Without drug resistance, the simulated influenza epidemic causes 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants.
- If drug resistance develops de novo, the number of outpatients increases to 20,700 and hospitalizations to 312.
- Importing a resistant strain after three weeks leads to 22,700 outpatients and 420 hospitalizations.
- Early importation of a resistant strain can lead to a dramatic increase in hospitalizations.
Takeaway
If a new flu virus that doesn't respond to treatment spreads, many more people could get sick and need to go to the hospital.
Methodology
The study used a deterministic simulation program called InfluSim to model the spread of drug-resistant influenza strains.
Limitations
The simulations provide average outcomes and do not capture the full range of possible results due to the stochastic nature of disease spread.
Participant Demographics
Swiss population of 100,000 inhabitants.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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