Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru
Author Information
Author(s): Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, Cesar V. Munayco, Jorge Gómez, Lone Simonsen, Mark A. Miller, James Tamerius, Victor Fiestas, Eric S. Halsey, Victor A. Laguna-Torres
Primary Institution: Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University
Hypothesis
How did the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic spread across different regions and age groups in Peru?
Conclusion
The study found significant spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two distinct waves affecting different age groups and regions.
Supporting Evidence
- The first wave of the pandemic primarily affected school-age children in Lima.
- The second wave was more widespread and affected all age groups.
- Testing rates were higher in the Lima metropolitan area compared to the rest of Peru.
- The study found a significant association between school vacation timing and changes in age distribution of cases.
- The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for Lima and 1.3–1.5 for the rest of Peru.
Takeaway
The 2009 A/H1N1 flu spread in two waves in Peru, first hitting school-age kids in Lima and then spreading to other areas and age groups.
Methodology
The study analyzed daily cases of influenza-like illness and confirmed A/H1N1 cases reported to Peru's Ministry of Health from May to December 2009.
Potential Biases
Potential bias due to changes in testing practices and the focus on hospitalized cases after July 7, 2009.
Limitations
The study relied on sentinel surveillance data, which may introduce sampling and selection bias.
Participant Demographics
The median age of A/H1N1 cases was 16 years, with a range from 0 to 98 years.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 1.6–1.7
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website