Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and DALYs from 1990 to 2021
Author Information
Author(s): Priyadarshini Subhadra, Panda Kunja Bihari
Primary Institution: Department of Statistics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
Hypothesis
This study aims to analyze the trends in breast cancer incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups from 1990 to 2021, and to project the mortality rate for the next decade.
Conclusion
Incidence rates are rising across all age groups, with the highest increase observed among younger women (15–49 years), while older age groups (50+ years) are experiencing improvements in mortality and DALYs.
Supporting Evidence
- The overall incidence of breast cancer increased significantly with an AAPC of 1.6% from 1990 to 2021.
- The highest increase was observed in the 15–49 years age group (AAPC: 1.3%).
- Mortality rates exhibited a complex pattern, with a modest overall increase (AAPC: 0.8%).
- DALY rates increased slightly overall (AAPC: 0.7%), primarily driven by the 15–49 years age group (AAPC: 0.4%).
- Older age groups showed a declining trend in DALYs (AAPC: −0.4%).
Takeaway
Breast cancer is becoming more common, especially in younger women, but older women are seeing better outcomes thanks to improved treatments.
Methodology
Global breast cancer data were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis and ARIMA modeling to identify trends and forecast future mortality rates.
Limitations
Potential data quality issues, changes in diagnostic criteria over time, and incomplete data from some registries may influence the observed trends.
Participant Demographics
Focus on female breast cancer cases across three age groups: 15–49 years, 50–69 years, and 70+ years.
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.001
Confidence Interval
(1.55, 1.58)
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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