The value of age and medical history for predicting colorectal cancer and adenomas in people referred for colonoscopy
2011

Predicting Colorectal Cancer and Adenomas Before Colonoscopy

Sample size: 8204 publication 10 minutes Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Adelstein Barbara-Ann, Macaskill Petra, Turner Robin M, Katelaris Peter H, Irwig Les

Primary Institution: University of New South Wales

Hypothesis

Can a model using age and medical history effectively identify individuals at higher risk for colorectal cancer and adenomas?

Conclusion

The study's models can help identify individuals at higher risk for colorectal cancer and adenomas, allowing for prioritized colonoscopy.

Supporting Evidence

  • The model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.83 for cancer prediction.
  • Age was identified as the dominant risk factor for both cancer and adenomas.
  • Having a colonoscopy in the last 10 years significantly reduced the risk of cancer and advanced adenomas.
  • The study included over 8,000 patients, providing a robust dataset for analysis.
  • Symptoms like rectal bleeding and mucus were associated with higher cancer risk.

Takeaway

This study helps doctors figure out who is more likely to have serious problems in their bowels, so they can get checked sooner.

Methodology

Patients completed a questionnaire about their symptoms and medical history before undergoing colonoscopy, and multinomial logistic regression was used to analyze the data.

Potential Biases

The study may not be applicable to patients presenting in general practice, as it focused on a referred population.

Limitations

There was no standard reporting for colonoscopy, which may affect the consistency of findings.

Participant Demographics

47% male, age range 18 to 95 years, with a median age of 58 years.

Statistical Information

P-Value

0.51

Confidence Interval

95%

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1186/1471-230X-11-97

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