Global Patterns of Cholera Seasonality
Author Information
Author(s): Michael Emch, Caryl Feldacker, Sirajul Islam, Mohammad Ali
Primary Institution: University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Hypothesis
How do temporal cycles of cholera vary around the world and what are its hypothesized causes?
Conclusion
Cholera outbreaks show seasonal patterns in higher latitudes, while near the equator, they do not follow a clear seasonal pattern.
Supporting Evidence
- Cholera outbreaks are more frequent near the equator than at higher latitudes.
- Seasonal patterns of cholera are evident in higher latitudes but not near the equator.
- Environmental and climatic factors influence the temporal variability of cholera outbreaks.
Takeaway
Cholera outbreaks happen more often in warmer places, but they have clear seasons in colder places.
Methodology
The study analyzed 32 years of cholera data from WHO reports using negative binomial regression models to assess the relationship between season, latitude, and cholera outbreaks.
Potential Biases
Variability in reporting practices among countries may introduce bias in the data.
Limitations
The WHO cholera surveillance database is incomplete, and not all outbreaks are reported, leading to potential underestimation of cholera patterns.
Participant Demographics
Data includes cholera cases reported from 140 countries over a 32-year period.
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.0001
Statistical Significance
p<0.0001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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