Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009
Author Information
Author(s): Joseph Prejean, Ruiguang Song, Angela Hernandez, Rebecca Ziebell, Timothy Green, Frances Walker, Lillian S. Lin, Qian An, Jonathan Mermin, Amy Lansky, Irene H. Hall
Primary Institution: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Hypothesis
What is the estimated incidence of new HIV infections in the United States from 2006 to 2009?
Conclusion
HIV incidence in the United States remained relatively stable from 2006 to 2009, but increased significantly among young men who have sex with men, particularly black/African American MSM.
Supporting Evidence
- Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 in 2006.
- There was a 21% increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years.
- MSM accounted for 61% of new infections in 2009.
- Young black/African American MSM experienced a 48% increase in incidence.
Takeaway
The number of new HIV infections in the U.S. didn't change much from 2006 to 2009, but young men who have sex with men, especially black men, are getting infected more.
Methodology
Incidence was estimated using surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities, applying a stratified extrapolation method with multiple imputation to account for missing data.
Potential Biases
Potential biases include misclassification of long-standing infections as recent and reliance on self-reported data for HIV testing history.
Limitations
The analysis was limited to areas that consistently met inclusion criteria, potentially underestimating incidence; also, changes in HIV testing behavior over time were not accounted for.
Participant Demographics
Participants included individuals aged 13 years and older diagnosed with HIV in the selected states and cities.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p=0.017
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 42,400–54,700
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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