Public Safety and Faulty Flood Statistics
2008
Flood Risks and Miscalculations
publication
Evidence: high
Author Information
Author(s): Criss Robert E., Winston William E.
Primary Institution: Washington University
Hypothesis
Are the flood probabilities calculated by USACE credible?
Conclusion
Flood probabilities are likely underestimated, leading to increased risk and mismanagement of flood zones.
Supporting Evidence
- Flood frequency and heights are increasing.
- Water levels for regulatory '100-year' floods are profoundly underestimated.
- Misconceptions about risk confound appropriate responses to flooding.
Takeaway
Floods are happening more often than we think, and the way we calculate flood risks is wrong, which can put people and property in danger.
Methodology
Statistical analysis using chi-square tests to evaluate flood frequency predictions.
Potential Biases
Reliance on outdated and potentially incorrect flood frequency calculations may lead to mismanagement.
Limitations
The historical record is too short to accurately predict future extreme flooding events.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.001
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website