Retracing Micro-Epidemics of Chagas Disease Using Epicenter Regression
2011

Micro-Epidemics of Chagas Disease in Arequipa, Peru

publication Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Levy Michael Z., Small Dylan S., Vilhena Daril A., Bowman Natalie M., Kawai Vivian, Cornejo del Carpio Juan G., Cordova-Benzaquen Eleazar, Gilman Robert H., Bern Caryn, Plotkin Joshua B.

Primary Institution: University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine

Hypothesis

Transmission in Arequipa may be so recent that most infected individuals have yet to progress to late stage disease.

Conclusion

The study found that most infections in Arequipa likely occurred over a brief period of time prior to insecticide application, explaining the absence of late-stage Chagas disease symptoms.

Supporting Evidence

  • Transmission of T. cruzi occurred as a series of focal micro-epidemics.
  • The oldest micro-epidemic began around 20 years ago.
  • Nearly 5% of the community was infected before vector control was implemented.

Takeaway

Chagas disease is spreading in small outbreaks in Arequipa, Peru, but many people don't show symptoms yet because they were infected recently.

Methodology

The study used epicenter regression to analyze the spatial and temporal history of Chagas disease transmission in a community.

Limitations

The study focused on a single peri-urban community, which may limit the generalizability of the findings.

Participant Demographics

The study involved a community in Guadalupe, Arequipa, Peru.

Statistical Information

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002146

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