Evaluating the Global Burden of Disease Model for Older Age Mortality
Author Information
Author(s): Seligman Benjamin J., Cullen Mark R., Horwitz Ralph I.
Primary Institution: Stanford University School of Medicine
Hypothesis
The life table model used in the Global Burden of Disease reports may not accurately estimate all-cause mortality in developing countries undergoing epidemiologic transition.
Conclusion
The GBD mortality model does not accurately estimate survival at older ages in developed countries and may similarly misestimate in developing countries.
Supporting Evidence
- The GBD model overestimated survival probabilities for older males in the first half of the 20th century.
- For females, the GBD model performed reasonably well in the first half but overestimated mortality in the latter half.
- Observed survival probabilities for both sexes increased over the years, while estimated survival probabilities from the GBD model decreased.
Takeaway
The study found that a model used to estimate how many older people will survive in developing countries is not very accurate, which could lead to wrong conclusions about health needs.
Methodology
The study analyzed life tables from the Human Mortality Database for 37 countries from 1900 to 2000 to compare estimated and observed survival rates.
Potential Biases
The GBD model may not accurately reflect the diverse mortality patterns of developing countries undergoing rapid transitions.
Limitations
The study could not quantify the specific errors in the GBD model's estimates of survival.
Participant Demographics
Data included males and females from 37 countries with life table data available.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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