Estimating Freedom from Echinococcus multilocularis in Sweden, Finland, and Norway
Author Information
Author(s): Wahlström Helene, Isomursu Marja, Hallgren Gunilla, Christensson Dan, Cedersmyg Maria, Wallensten Anders, Hjertqvist Marika, Davidson Rebecca K, Uhlhorn Henrik, Hopp Petter
Primary Institution: National Veterinary Institute, Sweden
Hypothesis
What is the probability that Sweden, Finland, and mainland Norway are free from Echinococcus multilocularis?
Conclusion
The study confirms a high probability that Sweden, Finland, and mainland Norway were free from Echinococcus multilocularis in 2009.
Supporting Evidence
- The cumulative probability of freedom from Echinococcus multilocularis was high in all three countries.
- Finland had a probability of 0.98, Sweden 0.99, and Norway 0.98 in December 2009.
- The study used data from five different animal species to assess the probability of freedom.
Takeaway
The study looked at whether three countries were free from a harmful parasite and found that they likely were, based on data from various animals.
Methodology
The study used scenario trees to estimate the probability of freedom from Echinococcus multilocularis based on surveillance data from five animal species.
Potential Biases
Potential overestimation of freedom due to reliance on expert estimates and assumptions.
Limitations
The study relies on assumptions and expert opinions due to a lack of data on expected prevalences in different species.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% CI 0.96-0.99
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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