A Prognostic Model for Estimating the Time to Virologic Failure in HIV-1 Infected Patients Undergoing a New Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Regimen
2011

Predicting Time to Virologic Failure in HIV-1 Patients on New Treatment

Sample size: 2182 publication 10 minutes Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Mattia CF Prosperi, Simona Di Giambenedetto, Iuri Fanti, Genny Meini, Bianca Bruzzone, Annapaola Callegaro, Giovanni Penco, Patrizia Bagnarelli, Valeria Micheli, Elisabetta Paolini, Antonio Di Biagio, Valeria Ghisetti, Massimo Di Pietro, Maurizio Zazzi, Andea De Luca

Primary Institution: Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy

Hypothesis

Can genotypic susceptibility scores (GSSs) predict the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen?

Conclusion

The study found that GSSs and other factors can help predict the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 patients on new treatments.

Supporting Evidence

  • 2337 cART regimens were analyzed from 2182 patients.
  • 1067 virologic failures were observed over 2820 person-years.
  • RSF showed better predictive performance than Cox regression.

Takeaway

This study looks at how long HIV patients can stay healthy on new treatments and finds ways to predict when they might get sick again.

Methodology

The study analyzed data from the Italian ARCA cohort, using Cox regression and random survival forests to assess the time to virologic failure.

Potential Biases

Potential bias due to exclusion of early treatment switches and reliance on a specific viral load threshold for defining virologic failure.

Limitations

The study only included patients on treatment for at least 90 days, which may introduce selection bias.

Participant Demographics

The cohort included 2182 patients, with 34% being treatment-naïve and a median age of 40 years.

Statistical Information

P-Value

< 0.0001

Confidence Interval

95% CI for median time to virologic failure was 533-784 days.

Statistical Significance

p < 0.0001

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1186/1472-6947-11-40

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