Modeling the Impact of Pan-Resistant E. coli on Sepsis Mortality
Author Information
Author(s): Koch Benjamin J., Park Daniel E., Hungate Bruce A., Liu Cindy M., Johnson James R., Price Lance B.
Primary Institution: Northern Arizona University
Hypothesis
The emergence of pan-resistant bacterial pathogens will result in a sharp increase in human mortality.
Conclusion
Failure to prevent the emergence of pan-resistance would have dire consequences for public health.
Supporting Evidence
- Sepsis deaths could increase 18- to 46-fold within 5 years of the emergence of a single pan-resistant E. coli strain.
- Current trends in sepsis mortality may underestimate the impact of pan-resistant infections.
- Sepsis is a major public health problem with an estimated 1.7 million cases and 350,000 deaths annually in the U.S.
Takeaway
If bacteria become resistant to all antibiotics, many more people could die from infections that are currently treatable.
Methodology
The study used computer and mathematical modeling based on long-term data to predict the impact of a hypothetical pan-resistant E. coli strain on sepsis deaths.
Limitations
The model is based on a single hypothetical strain and may not account for all variables affecting sepsis mortality.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on the general U.S. population, with specific age class considerations for sepsis incidence and mortality.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
90% CI: 2025–2094
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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