Emissions of HFC-23 do not reflect commitments made under the Kigali Amendment
2024

HFC-23 Emissions and the Kigali Amendment

publication 10 minutes Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Adam Ben, Luke M. Western, Jens Mühle, Haklim Choi, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, Jooil Kim, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Matt Rigby

Primary Institution: School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Hypothesis

Have HFC-23 emissions been effectively reduced since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment?

Conclusion

HFC-23 emissions have not been destroyed to the extent reported by the Parties since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment.

Supporting Evidence

  • HFC-23 emissions fell to 14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1 in 2023 from a maximum of 17.3 ± 0.8 Gg yr-1 in 2019.
  • Emissions from eastern China were found to be substantially higher than reported emissions for 2020-2022.
  • Potential sources of HFC-23 not linked to HCFC-22 production explain only a minor fraction of the discrepancy in emissions.

Takeaway

HFC-23 is a harmful gas that is still being released into the air even though countries promised to reduce it. This study shows that the actual emissions are much higher than what was reported.

Methodology

The study used atmospheric observations and a Bayesian inversion method to estimate global annual emissions of HFC-23.

Potential Biases

Potential under-reporting of emissions by countries could skew results.

Limitations

The study relies on atmospheric measurements which may not capture all emissions sources accurately.

Statistical Information

Confidence Interval

14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1038/s43247-024-01946-y

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