HFC-23 Emissions and the Kigali Amendment
Author Information
Author(s): Adam Ben, Luke M. Western, Jens Mühle, Haklim Choi, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, Jooil Kim, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Matt Rigby
Primary Institution: School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Hypothesis
Have HFC-23 emissions been effectively reduced since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment?
Conclusion
HFC-23 emissions have not been destroyed to the extent reported by the Parties since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment.
Supporting Evidence
- HFC-23 emissions fell to 14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1 in 2023 from a maximum of 17.3 ± 0.8 Gg yr-1 in 2019.
- Emissions from eastern China were found to be substantially higher than reported emissions for 2020-2022.
- Potential sources of HFC-23 not linked to HCFC-22 production explain only a minor fraction of the discrepancy in emissions.
Takeaway
HFC-23 is a harmful gas that is still being released into the air even though countries promised to reduce it. This study shows that the actual emissions are much higher than what was reported.
Methodology
The study used atmospheric observations and a Bayesian inversion method to estimate global annual emissions of HFC-23.
Potential Biases
Potential under-reporting of emissions by countries could skew results.
Limitations
The study relies on atmospheric measurements which may not capture all emissions sources accurately.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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