Comparing Heat and COVID-19 Mortality
Author Information
Author(s): Batibeniz Fulden, Seneviratne Sonia I., Jha Srinidhi, Ribeiro Andreia, Suarez Gutierrez Laura, Raible Christoph C., Malhotra Avni, Armstrong Ben, Bell Michelle L., Lavigne Eric, Gasparrini Antonio, Guo Yuming, Hashizume Masahiro, Masselot Pierre, da Silva Susana Pereira, Royé Dominic, Sera Francesco, Tong Shilu, Urban Aleš, Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M.
Primary Institution: ETH Zurich
Hypothesis
How do projected heat-related deaths compare to COVID-19 deaths in major cities worldwide?
Conclusion
Heat-related deaths could exceed COVID-19 deaths in many cities within the next decade due to climate change.
Supporting Evidence
- In half of the cities studied, heat-related deaths could exceed COVID-19 deaths in less than ten years.
- In seven cities, heat mortality could surpass COVID-19 deaths in less than five years.
- Cities in Asia and Australia showed lower COVID-19 burdens compared to other cities in the study.
- North American and European cities are particularly vulnerable to heat-related mortality.
Takeaway
As the Earth gets hotter, more people might die from heat than from COVID-19 in many cities, and this could happen very soon.
Methodology
The study used temperature-mortality relationships and climate model simulations to project heat-related mortality in 38 cities.
Potential Biases
Potential underreporting of COVID-19 cases and inconsistent city-level data may bias results.
Limitations
The study did not account for population changes, adaptation measures, or the dependency between COVID-19 and heat-related mortality.
Participant Demographics
Cities from 34 countries across six continents were included.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95%
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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