Trends in Human Virus Discovery
Author Information
Author(s): Mark E.J. Woolhouse, Richard Howey, Eleanor Gaunt, Liam Reilly, Margo Chase-Topping, Nick Savill
Primary Institution: University of Edinburgh
Hypothesis
What is the rate of discovery of new human virus species over time?
Conclusion
New human viruses are likely to continue being discovered, indicating that public health planning must account for these potential threats.
Supporting Evidence
- The cumulative species discovery curve for human viruses shows a slow initial increase followed by a rapid rise.
- The model predicts that 10 to 40 new virus species will be discovered by 2020.
- The study found a correlation between the number of viruses discovered and the year, indicating ongoing discovery.
Takeaway
Scientists are finding more than two new human viruses every year, and they think there are many more still out there waiting to be discovered.
Methodology
The study used a cumulative species discovery curve and piecewise linear regression to analyze the rate of virus discovery.
Potential Biases
Potential bias due to reliance on published reports and the possibility of unreported viruses.
Limitations
The study does not account for variations in detection techniques and reporting over time.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.015
Confidence Interval
95% CI, 38–562
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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