Chronic Kidney Disease Model: A General Purpose Model of Disease Progression and Treatment
Author Information
Author(s): Orlando Lori A, Belasco Eric J, Patel Uptal D, Matchar David B
Primary Institution: Duke University
Hypothesis
The objective of the Chronic Kidney Disease model is to provide guidance to decision makers.
Conclusion
The CKD Model is a valid, general purpose model intended as a resource to inform clinical and policy decisions improving CKD care.
Supporting Evidence
- The model was validated for GFR change/year -3.0 ± 1.9 vs. -1.7 ± 3.4 in the AASK trial.
- Annual myocardial infarction and mortality rates were 3.6 ± 0.9% and 1.6 ± 0.5% in the model.
- The model's projections for CKD outcomes were comparable to those from the AASK trial and the Go study.
- Treatment A decreased the lifetime risk for MI and cardiovascular disease mortality while increasing the risk of dialysis.
Takeaway
This study created a model to help doctors and policymakers understand how to treat chronic kidney disease better, showing how different treatments can affect health outcomes.
Methodology
Monte Carlo simulation of CKD natural history and treatment with various health states and treatment strategies.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from the reliance on expert opinion for input values.
Limitations
The model's accuracy depends on the quality of input data, and it may not include all relevant covariates.
Participant Demographics
The model is based on the US CKD population, with characteristics including race, age, gender, diabetes, and CKD stage.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95%
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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