Predicting Hazardous Alcohol Consumption in Safe Drinkers
Author Information
Author(s): Michael King, Louise Marston, Igor Švab, Heidi-Ingrid Maaroos, Mirjam I. Geerlings, Miguel Xavier, Vicente Benjamin, Francisco Torres-Gonzalez, Juan Angel Bellon-Saameno, Danica Rotar, Anu Aluoja, Sandra Saldivia, Bernardo Correa, Irwin Nazareth
Primary Institution: Department of Mental Health Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Hypothesis
Can a risk model be developed to predict hazardous alcohol consumption in individuals currently drinking at safe limits?
Conclusion
The predictAL risk model effectively predicts the development of hazardous alcohol consumption in safe drinkers and can aid in prevention efforts.
Supporting Evidence
- The model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839.
- The incidence of hazardous drinking over six months in Europe was estimated at 4.0%.
- The model was validated in Chile with a c-index of 0.781.
Takeaway
This study created a tool to help doctors figure out which safe drinkers might start drinking too much in the future, so they can help them before it becomes a problem.
Methodology
A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile, using stepwise logistic regression to develop a risk model.
Potential Biases
Potential bias due to self-reported data and the exclusion of non-responders.
Limitations
Lower recruitment rates in the UK and Netherlands may affect generalizability, and the study only followed participants for six months.
Participant Demographics
Adult general practice attendees aged 18 to 75 from six European countries and Chile.
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.001
Confidence Interval
95% CI 0.805, 0.873
Statistical Significance
p<0.01
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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