Climate Change and the Future of California's Endemic Flora
Author Information
Author(s): Scott R. Loarie, Benjamin E. Carter, Katharine Hayhoe, Sean McMahon, Richard Moe, Charles A. Knight, David D. Ackerly, Craig R. McClain
Primary Institution: Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University
Hypothesis
How will climate change affect the range sizes and distribution of California's endemic plant species?
Conclusion
The study projects that up to 66% of California's endemic flora will experience significant reductions in range size due to climate change.
Supporting Evidence
- California's flora includes 2387 endemic plant taxa, with significant projected range reductions due to climate change.
- Projected reductions depend on future emissions and species' ability to disperse.
- Regions where species may persist under severe range reductions have been identified.
Takeaway
Climate change could make many plants in California's unique environment shrink their homes, and some might not survive.
Methodology
The study used bioclimatic models to project changes in the range sizes and distributions of endemic plant species based on climate data.
Potential Biases
Excluding poorly known species could lead to biased projections of biodiversity patterns.
Limitations
The projections may be biased due to the exclusion of poorly known species and the simplifying assumptions of the models.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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