Modeling Paratuberculosis Spread in Dairy Cattle
Author Information
Author(s): Marcé Clara, Ezanno Pauline, Seegers Henri, Pfeiffer Dirk Udo, Fourichon Christine
Primary Institution: INRA, UMR1300 Bio-agression, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risque en santé animale, Nantes, France
Hypothesis
Can we predict whether Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection in a dairy cattle herd will fade out or persist without control measures?
Conclusion
The study found that spontaneous fadeout of paratuberculosis infection occurred in 66% of the simulations, indicating that early detection of affected animals is crucial to prevent persistence.
Supporting Evidence
- 66% of the simulation runs resulted in fadeout of the infection.
- Prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years when the infection persisted.
- The main transmission routes identified were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission.
- Calf-to-calf transmission was found to be a minor route.
- Early detection of affected animals is crucial to prevent persistence.
Takeaway
This study used a computer model to see if a disease in cows would go away or stay. It found that most of the time, the disease could disappear on its own if caught early.
Methodology
A stochastic model was developed to simulate the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a dairy herd over 25 years, considering various transmission routes.
Limitations
The model assumes no further infected animals are introduced and does not account for intermittent shedding or genetic factors affecting susceptibility.
Participant Demographics
The model was calibrated to represent a typical French dairy cattle herd.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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