Impact of the Heroin Shortage on Australian Drug Markets
Author Information
Author(s): Gilmour Stuart, Koch Inge, Degenhardt Louisa, Day Carolyn
Primary Institution: National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales
Hypothesis
What are the effects of the heroin shortage on illicit drug markets in Australia?
Conclusion
The heroin shortage was a significant non-random shock that strongly affected the illicit drug markets in Australia.
Supporting Evidence
- The heroin shortage was the most significant factor affecting the illicit drug market.
- The effect of the heroin shortage was more than three times that of long-term epidemic patterns.
- Principal Component Analysis revealed that the heroin shortage explained a large portion of the variability in the data.
Takeaway
When there was less heroin available in Australia, people started using other drugs more, and this change was really big and important.
Methodology
The study used Principal Component Analysis and SiZer to analyze key indicator data series from the New South Wales illicit drug market.
Limitations
The data series were not used to identify the exact time of onset of the heroin shortage due to delays in data collection and analysis.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on illicit drug users and law enforcement in New South Wales, Australia.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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