The Safe Development Paradox of the United States Regulatory Floodplain
Author Information
Author(s): Sanchez Georgina M., Lawrimore Margaret A., Petrasova Anna, Vogler John B., Collins Elyssa L., Petras Vaclav, Harper Truffaut, Butzler Emma J., Meentemeyer Ross K.
Primary Institution: North Carolina State University
Hypothesis
Does FEMA’s regulatory 100-year floodplain present a safe development paradox?
Conclusion
The study found that development is disproportionately concentrated in areas immediately adjacent to the 100-year floodplain, which may increase flood risk.
Supporting Evidence
- 24% of all developed land is in the 0–250 m distance zone from the floodplain.
- Projected development in the 0–250 m zone is expected to increase by 8% from 2019 to 2060.
- 13.3% of the U.S. population currently resides in areas designated as high-risk flood zones.
Takeaway
This study shows that building near flood zones can actually make flooding worse, even though people think they are safe.
Methodology
The study conducted a comprehensive national assessment of historical and future development patterns related to the regulatory 100-year floodplain using spatial analysis and simulations.
Potential Biases
The binary categorization of flood risk zones may lead to misleading perceptions of safety.
Limitations
The study does not differentiate between types of development and is limited to flood regulations in the U.S.
Statistical Information
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website