Population-Wide Emergence of Antiviral Resistance during Pandemic Influenza
Author Information
Author(s): Moghadas Seyed M., Bowman Christopher S., Röst Gergely, Wu Jianhong, Galvani Alison P.
Primary Institution: Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada
Hypothesis
How do treatment levels of antiviral drugs affect the emergence of drug-resistant influenza strains during a pandemic?
Conclusion
An adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in drug use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections.
Supporting Evidence
- Resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is delayed by applying other curtailing measures.
- An optimal treatment level exists that minimizes the final size of the pandemic.
- Changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic can reduce the final size of the pandemic.
Takeaway
If we use antiviral drugs carefully at first and then increase their use later, we can help stop the spread of a flu pandemic and prevent drug-resistant viruses from taking over.
Methodology
A deterministic mathematical model was used to investigate scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs.
Limitations
The study relies on model simulations and assumptions about viral dynamics and treatment effectiveness, which may not fully capture real-world complexities.
Participant Demographics
The model assumes a susceptible population of size 100,000 with no pre-existing immunity.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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